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SUBSCRIBER NOTICES: Derby/Preakness/Belmont Subscription: Please use the same username and password. Sign out and sign back in if needed. Dick's Picks and selections by Greg "The Commish" Johnson for the Belmont Stakes are posted. Derby Trail Subscription Page: We launched a new Belmont Stakes Contenders page as a bonus.The Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case pages, with profiles of dozens of horses, are up to date including completed profiles and histories of all the Kentucky Derby horses on Looking Good. There's also a bonue Preakness Horses page.

In 2018, we have two Subscription Pages, the same format used in 2017: (1) The tried and true Kentucky Derby Subscription, which include the Preakness and Belmont Stakes at no extra charge, and (2) The Derby Trail Subscription Page. For fuller descriptions, please click either of the two links immediately below and/or scroll down.  Further, to read in detail about The Downey Profile, click here. The Downey Profile® Was Awarded A Service Mark in 2008 by the U. S. Patent and Trademark Office. Renewed in 2013

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Triple Crown Belongs to Justify




On Twitter: @DowneyProfile


Walden Says Justify To Be 'Shared More'
In Louisville Monday

Belmont Stakes PPs

Woody Stephens Stakes: Still Having Fun Nails the Early Speed

Prince Lucky Strikes in Easy Goer

Daily Belmont Stakes Update for Friday

Justify's Final Belmont Gallop: He's Ready

Thursday's Daily Belmont Update

Justify Arrives Safely at Belmont Park
Bites Baffert

Video: Belmont Training at Churchill Downs
Monday  Sunday  Saturday  Friday  Thursday  Wednesday  Tuesday  Monday  Sunday  Saturday  Friday II   Friday  Thursday

Video: Belmont Workouts in New York
June 3: Hofburg (at end of video)  June 2: Blended Citizen  June 2; Gronkowski  June 1: Vino Rosso June 1: Noble Indy  May 26: Blended Citizen  May 26: Vino Rosso/Noble Indy  May 26: Gronkowski  May 25: Hofburg

Wednesday's Daily Belmont Update

Tuesday's Daily Belmont Update: Trainers Swap Barbs

Justify Connections Pledge Support for New Vocations

Daily Belmont Update: Monday

Baffert: Breaking from Gate the Main Thing

Justify, Restoring Hope Complete Belmont Stakes Workouts

Mott After Workout: Hofburg Has Moved Forward

Pletcher Seeking Fourth Belmont Stakes Win

Updated: Free Drop Billy Works Five for Belmont Stakes

Gronkowski, Blended Citizen Finish Major Preparations

Tenfold Gets In Final Belmont Stakes Workout
Justify Marches On

Tenfold Taking Big Strides Toward Belmont

Barnes: Justify 'Breathing Fire'

Updated: Vino Rosso, Noble Indy In Final Belmont Breezes

Mott: Hofburg Doing Well

Lukas Says Belmont Taller Order Than Preakness

Bravazo Breezes Mile for Belmont

Belmont Stakes Notes: May 30, 2018

Justify Motors Through Breeze

Fiske Likes Tenfold's Development
More Belmont Stakes Notes

Baffert Says Things Going Smoothly
Free Drop Billy Strong Workout

Justify Back on Familiar Ground After Rain

Vino Rosso, Noble Indy Remain on Target

Justify Another Routine Day; Blended Citizen, Gronkowski Breeze

Thursday: Justify 'Happy Out There'

Justify Eating Everything in Sight

Justify Guts Out Foggy Preakness

Chart of 1 3/16-Mile Pimlico Special

Ax Man Draws Off in Sir Barton Stakes

Blended Citizen Rallies to Win Peter Pan Stakes

Kanthaka Returns to Form in Laz Barrera

Around the Web
Preakness at Pimlico Not Guaranteed Past 2019

Corrected Kentucky Derby Chart
Increases Beaten Lengths Starting w/ Firenze Fire

Man Wins $150,000 on $500 Derby Future Wager

O'Brien: "We weren't prepared."

Justify Reverses The Curse

Derby Day Handle Hits New Heights

Monomoy Girl Outlasts Wonder Gadot in Kentucky Oaks

Kentucky Derby Off Track Winners, Last 48 Runnings

Diamond King Digs In To Win Frederico Tesio

Magnum Moon Wins Arkansas Derby by Four

My Boy Jack Solidly in Kentucky Derby Picture

Louisville House Owned by Donerail Rider Goose Gets Historical Marker

Pool 4 Closes With Justify at 3-1

Justify Gets His Kentucky Derby Points

Good Magic Back on Top in Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

Vino Rosso Negotiates Second Turn, Wins Wood Memorial

Audible Wins Florida Derby With Closing Burst

Mendelssohn Dominates UAE Derby

Runaway Ghost Easily Best in Sunland Derby

Noble Indy Turns Back the Closers

Magnum Moon Much the Best in Rebel

Blended Citizen Roars to Jeff Ruby Steaks Win

V. I. P. Code Upsets in Private Terms

River Boyne Gets Up in Pasadena

Stewards Decide Who Wins San Felipe

Quip Bursts onto Kentucky Derby Scene in Tampa

Enticed Comes from Behind to Win One-Turn Gotham

Promises Fulfilled Shows the Way in Fountain of Youth

Maraud, Speed Franco Much the Best in Palm Beach

Resurgent Reride Takes Mine That Bird Derby

My Boy Jack Skims Southwest Rail

Wanna Go Two Turns? Heck Yeah!

Lukas, Calumet in Derby Picture with Bravazo

Paved Beats Boys in El Camino Real Derby

Still Having Fun Closes to Win Snowy Miracle Wood

Flameaway Upsets in Sam F. Davis Stakes

Kanthaka Rallies to Win San Vicente at 11-1

Read about The Downey Profile

Continue to More Workouts

Workouts of Interest
On fast dirt unless noted


June 9, King Zachary five in 1.01:00 Breezing 12/41 at CD
June 9, Machismo five in 1.00:60 Breezing 3/41 at CD
June 9, Magnum Moon four in 50:04 Breezing training track 14/34 at BEL
June 9, My Boy Jack five in 1.01:60 Handily 24/61 at SA

June, 8, Flameaway four in 59:60 Breezing 4/14 at CD
June 8, Slot four in 48:87 Breezing firm turf training 1/38 at SAR

June 6, Ike six in 1.12:20 Handily 1/7 at SA
June 6, Talent Scout three in 35.80 Handily 1/27 at SA
June 6, Solomini four in 48.00 Handily 6/37 at SA
June 6, Talent Scout three in 37:40 Handily 13/27 at SA

June 5, Bal Harbor three in 39:92 Breezing 1/4 at Good Chance Farm
June 5, Diamond King five in 1.02:35 Handily 16/18 at PRX
June 5, Fight On three in 37:40 Handily 5/7 at SLR
June 5, Reride five in 1.02:00 Breezing firm turf 2/5 at CD
June 5, Shane Zain three in 36:00 Handily 2/7 at SLR
June 5, World of Trouble four in 51:66 Breezing 36/40 at BEL
June 5, Zulfikhar four in 48:20 Handily 4/35 at SA

June 4, Ax Man five in 1.00:80 Breezing 6/15 at CD
June 4, Core Beliefs five in 1.00:60 Handily 4/30 at SA
June 4, Restoring Hope six in 1.13:00 Breezing 1/1 at CD
June 4, Justify five in 1.01:40 Breezing 9/15 at CD
June 4, Kanthaka four in 47:80 Handily 6/54 at SA
June 4, Lombo four in 48:00 Handily 8/54 at SA
June 4, Run Away five in 1.00:00 Handily 2/30 at SA
June 4, Title Ready four in 53:60 Breezing 33/35 at CD
June 4, Tiz Mischief five in 59:80 Breezing 3/15 at CD

June 3, Bolt d'Oro four in 48:40 Breezing 18/56 at KEE
June 3, Combatant five in 1.00:00 Breezing 3/15 at CD
June 3, Free Drop Billy five in 59:20 Breezing 1/15 at CD
June 3, High North four in 49:77 Breezing 11/16 at BEL
June 3, Hofburg five in 1.01:03 Breezing training track 1/11 at SAR
June 3, Justaholic five in 1.01:80 Breezing 2/5 at MTH
June 3, King Zachary five in 1.00:60 Breezing 7/15 at CD
June 3, Lone Sailor four in 47:00 Breezing 1/64 at CD
June 3, Magnum Moon four in 50:04 Breezing training track 41/78 at BEL
June 3, Mask five in 1.01:78 Breezing 7/16 at CD
June 3, Promises Fulfilled four in 47:00 Breezing 1/64 at CD
June 3, Supreme Aura five in 1.01:20 Breezing 1/5 at MTH
June 3, The Tabulator three in 34:60 Handily synthetic 3/11 at AP

June 2, Blended Citizen five in 1.00:64 Breezing 4/9 at BEL
June 2, Engage five in 1.01:87 Breezing good track 4/8 at BEL
June 2, Flameaway five in 1.00:60 Breezing 9/42 at CD
June 2, Givemeaminit four in 48:60 Breezing 35/118 at CD
June 2, Gronkowski five in 1.01:87 Breezing good track: 4/8 at BEL
June 2, Machismo four in 49:80 Breezing  83/118 at CD
June 2, My Boy Jack four in 49:80 Handily 62/75 at SA
June 2, Still Having Fun four in 47:60 Breezing 6/77 at LRL
June 2, Strike Power four in 48:09 Breezing good track 4/35 at BEL
June 2, Tenfold five in 1.01:60 Breezing 27/42 at CD

June 1, Afleet Ascent five in 1.01:80 Handily 33/52 at SA
June 1, Enticed three in 38:00 Breezing synthetic 1/1 at GTC
June 1, Hyndford five in 1:01.66 Breezing good training track 5/10 at BEL
June 1, Noble Indy five in 1:01.22 Breezing good training track (1/10) at BEL
June 1, Pony Up four in 51:23 Breezing 16/18 at BEL
June 1, Talent Scout five in 1.01:20 Handily 19/52 at SA
June 1, Telekinesis four in 45:40 Breezing synthetic 1/57 at WO
June 1, Vino Rosso five in 1:01.55 Breezing good training track (3/10) at BEL

May 31, Bravazo one mile in 1.42:60 Breezing 1/1 at CD
May 31, Peace four in 49:00 Handily 10/39 at SA
May 31, Soutache four in 50:44 Breezing 11/21 at BEL

May 30, Ike five in 59:40 Handily 1/22 at SA
May 30, Firenze Fire four in 50:38 Breezing training track 16/29 at BEL
May 30, World of Trouble five in 1.01:55 Breezing training track 2/8 at BEL
May 30, Zulfikhar six in 1.12:80 Handily 3/10 at SA

May 29, Ax Man four in 48:60 Breezing 13/43 at CD
May 29, Justify four in 46:80 Breezing 1/43 at CD
May 29, Reride four in 51:80 Breezing 42/43 at CD
May 29, Restoring Hope seven in 1.26:00 Breezing 1/1 at CD
May 29, Run Away four in 48:00 Handily 2/34 at SA
May 29, Solomini four in 48:00 Breezing 10/43 at CD
May 29, Storm Runner five in 1.02:00 Breezing 8/11 at CD

May 28, Analyze It five in 1.01:88 Breezing soft inner turf 11/15 at BEL
May 28, Bolt d'Oro five in 57:00 Handily 1/2 at KEE
May 28, Catholic Boy four in 48:09 Breezing soft inner turf 2/11 at BEL
May 28, Coltandmississippi four in 50:03 Breezing good training track 16/30 at BEL
May 28, Free Drop Billy five in 59:60 Breezing 2/25 at CD
May 28, Mask five in 1.01:23 Breezing good training track 4/19 at BEL
May 28, Promises Fulfilled five in 59:60 Breezing 2/25 at CD
May 28, Seven Trumpets four in 50:00 Breezing 27/40 at CD
May 28, Tiz Mischief five in 59:60 Breezing 2/25 at CD
May 28, Zing Zang five in 1.02:10 Breezing good training track 9/12 at BEL

May 27, Combatant five in 1.01:60 Breezing muddy track 3/19 at CD
May 27, Slot four in 48:81 Breezing training track 3/19 at SAR
May 27, The Tablulator four in 58:20 Breezing synthetic track 1/12 at AP

May 26, Blended Citizen four in 47:55 Breezing 1/35 at BEL
May 26, Engage four in 47:99 Breezing 3/35 at BEL
May 26, Gronkowski four in 47.99 Breezing 3/35 at BEL
May 26, High North four in 49:93 Breezing training track 44/68 at BEL
May 26, Kanthaka five in 59:40 Handily 1/47 at SA
May 26, King Zachary five in 1.02:20 Breezing 14/20 at CD
May 26, Lombo four in 49:00 Handily 30/60 at SA
May 26, Mississippi four in 49:20 Breezing 36/85 at CD
May 26, Untamed Domain six in 1.13:00 Breezing synthetic track 1/3 at FAI

May 25, Flameaway four in 49:20 Breezing 23/35 at CD
May 25, Hofburg six in 1.13:43 Breezing training track 1/1 at SAR
May 25, Givemeaminit four in 49:60 Breezing 26/35 at CD
May 25, Hyndford four in 48:93 Breezing training track 21/51 at BEL
May 25, Noble Indy four in 47:04 Breezing 1/36 at BEL
May 25, Strike Power five in 1.00:65 Breezing  2/6 at BEL
May 25, Supreme Aura four 48:80 Breezing 6/24 at MTH
May 25, Telekinesis four in 50:80 Breezing 28/29 at KEE
May 25, Vino Rosso four in 47:04 Breezing 1/36 at BEL

May 24, Talent Scout six in 1.14:60 Handily 6/9 at SA

May 23, Fire When Ready five in 58:40 Handily 1/30 at SA
May 23, Gotta Go four in 48:20 Breezing 1/22 at CD
May 23, Zulfikhar five in 59:20 Handily 2/30 at SA

May 22, Ike four in 47:80 Handily 2/31 at SA
May 22, Restoring Hope five in 1.00:00 Breezing 1/19 at CD
May 22, Solomini five in 1.00:00 Breezing 1/19 at CD

May 21, Analyze It four in 49:05 Breezing 34/73 at BEL
May 21, Free Drop Billy four in 47:60 Breezing 1/51 at CD
May 21, Gidu four in 49:26 Breezing training track 43/79 at BEL
May 21, Mask four in 48:87 Breezing training track 18/68 at BEL
May 21, Promises Fulfilled four in 47:60 Breezing 1/51 at CD
May 21, Zing Zang four in 51:16 Breezing 29/29 at BEL

May 20, Afleet Ascent five in 59:80 Handily 4/45 at SA
May 20, Barry Lee five in 59:60 Breezing 3/23 at CD
May 20, Combatant five in 1.01:60 Breezing 15/23 at CD
May 20, Cove Blue four in 46:60 Breezing 1/57 at CD
May 20, Kanthaka four in 48:80 Handily 22/59 at SA
May 20, King Zachary four in 47:80 Breezing 9/57 at CD
May 20, Seven Trumpets five in 1.02:40 Breezing 18/23 at CD
May 20, The Tabulator five in 1.00:20 Breezing 1/19 at AP

May 19. Exclamation Point four in 48:40 Breezing 12/75 at CD
May 19, Ezmosh four in 48:40 Breezing 12/75 at CD

May 18, Givemeaminit four in 48:80 Breezing 19/49 at CD
May 18, He Takes Charge five in 59:80 Breezing 2/10 at KEE
May 18, Hofburg four in 49:32 Breezing 6/50 at SAR
May 18, Slot four in 48:89 Breezing 1/50 at SAR
May 18, Strike Power four in 49:33 Breezing good track 2/6 at BEL
May 18, Telekinesis five in 59:60 Breezing 1/10 at KEE

May 16, Sea Foam five in 1.02:87 Breezing good track 1/2 at BEL
May 16, Talent Scout five in 1.01:00 Handily 12/25 at SA

May 15, Seven Trumpets five in 59:80 Breezing 3/31 at CD

May 14, Justaholic four in 50:80 Breezing sloppy track 1/2 at MTH
May 14, Restoring Hope four in 47:00 Breezing 1/23 at CD
May 14, Solomini four in 47:20 Breezing 2/23 at CD
May 14, Tenfold four in 49:40 Breezing 13/23 at CD

May 13, Bravazo four in 50:60 Breezing 42/47 at CD
May 13, Diamond King five in 1:01.51 Handily sloppy track 1/2 at PRX
May 13, Plainsman four in 48:80 Breezing 17/39 at KEE
May 13, Quip four in 48:20 Breezing 6/21 at KEE
May 13, Telekinesis four in 46:80 Breezing 1/40 at KEE
May 13, The Tabulator four in 51:00 Breezing synthetic 14/15 at AP
May 13, Title Ready four in 49:20 Breezing 15/47 at CD

May 12, Catholic Boy four in 48:80 Breezing good turf 3/5 at Bridlewood Farm

May 12, Analyze It four in 50:55 Breezing training track 59/94 at BEL
May 12, Ax Man six in 1.12:80 Handily 1/8 at SA
May 12, Barry Lee five in 1.00:00 Breezing 6/41 at CD
May 12, Exclamation Point four in 48:20 Breezing 9/50 at CD
May 12, Ezmosh four in 48:00 Breezing 8/50 at CD
May 12, Gidu four in 49:00 Breezing training track 12/95 at BEL
May 12, He Takes Charge five in 59:80 Breezing 1/15 at KEE
May 12, Heck Yeah five in  1.00:40 Handily 7/40 at SA
May 12, Old Time Revival five in 57:60 Handily 1/23 at LRL
May 12, Run Away five in 1.00:80 Handily 13/40 at SA

May 11, Pony Up four in 48:89 Breezing training track 17/43 at BEL
May 11, Strike Power four in 47:01 Breezing 2/38 at BEL

May 10, Soutache four in 47:55 Breezing 1/10 at BEL

May 9, World of Trouble three in 38:84 Breezing 4/5 at BEL

May 8, Justaholic five in 1.01:00 Breezing 1/2 at MTH
May 8, Peace three in 36:00 Handily 1/17 at SA
May 8, Sea Foam five in 1.01:37 Breezing 1/8 at BEL
May 8, Seven Trumpets five in 1.00:60 Breezing 5/19 at CD
May 8, Talent Scout four in 48:00 Handily 3/15 at LRC
May 8, Telekinesis five in 1.00:20 Breezing 2/27 at KEE

Continue to More Workouts

Downey Profile subscribers to the Kentucky Derby service have access to The Downey Profile Rankings for the Kentucky Derby, the Profile Busters Profile, Downey's in-depth post-race analyses of the Kentucky Derby prep races starting with the Risen Star Stakes, special NOTES, and Downey's and Johnson's Derby, Preakness and Belmont selections. Thanks, and good luck!

Our Derby Trail Subscription Service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting in early February and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from trainers, jockeys and owners. We usually start out with about 100 horses on these lists. We started with 103 this year. (3)  We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.

--Dick Downey

Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for the fifth straight year in 2018. Justify was among the Downey Profile Top 4 horses, as were second finisher Good Magic and third finisher Audible. The final Kentucky Derby workout by Justify was impressive, and that helped lead Downey to pick him right on top. Good Magic was in Downey's second spot for the cold exacta.
1. JUSTIFY (first)
2. GOOD MAGIC (second)
3. MENDELSSOHN (twentieth)
4. HOFBURG (seventh)
5. AUDIBLE (third)
6. BOLT D'ORO (twelfth)

The Commish had the winner picked in the second slot. He told Downey his top Derby pick had never run last before this year, so he thinks there's plenty of upside potential going forward.
1. MENDELSSOHN (twentieth)
2. JUSTIFY (first)
3. VINO ROSSO (ninth)
4. MY BOY JACK (fifth)
5. AUDIBLE (third)


Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for the fourth straight year in 2017. Always Dreaming wasn't in the Downey Profile Top 4, but it was kind of a crazy year and Downey wasn't sold on the Top 4, Always Dreaming was the top Profile Buster Profile horse, and he put in a super-impressive final Derby workout. The selections underneath Always Dreaming weren't as strong as the comparable picks in 2015 and 2016.

2. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
3. IRISH WAR CRY (tenth)
4. MCCRAKEN (eighth)
5. IRAP (eighteenth)
6. GORMLEY (ninth)

The Commish picked the winner right on top for the third time in four years:
2. HENCE (eleventh)
3. STATE OF HONOR (nineteenth)
4. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
5. TAPWRIT (sixth)


Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were:
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)

For the first time, Downey put together a superfecta part wheel for subscribers. The cost for a $1 ticket was $88, and we were fortunate enough to see that bet hit and pay $542.10.

The Commish picked:
1. EXAGGERATOR (second)
2. NYQUIST (first)
3. MY MAN SAM (eleventh)
4. WHITMORE (nineteenth)
5. MO TOM (eighth)

The Commish stuck to his guns with Exaggerator in the Preakness, and he won the race.


Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were:
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)

The Commish picked:

2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FIRING LINE (second)
4. FROSTED (fourth)
5. CARPE DIEM (tenth)


Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were:
2. DANZA (third)
3. SAMRAAT (fifth)
4. INTENSE HOLIDAY (twelfth)
5. CHITU (ninth)
6. GENERAL A ROD (eleventh)

The Commish picked:
2. CANDY BOY (thirteenth)
4. DANZA (third)
5. CHITU (ninth)


The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 that's primarily focused on the run-up to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown. In 2018, the site went live before the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes and San Vicente Stakes.

We cover other special events from time to time. In 2015, Dick Downey worked for The Louisville Courier-Journal alongside five-time Eclipse Award winner Jennie Rees during the newspaper's coverage of the Breeders' Cup. The Downey Profile has covered every race of the Kentucky Downs meet for several years.

Thanks for everything, and it's good see you again.

--By Dick Downey



THE DOWNEY PROFILE page is an introduction to our statistical study of the Kentucky Derby.  Do Derby winners have factors in commom more prevalent than non-winners?  They absolutely do. Not a computer program or a system, The Downey Profile is a statistical study of the comparative frequency of a variety of factors present in winners versus non-winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1973.

At this link, The Downey Profile is explained, results of its wagering application to the Kentucky Derby are demonstrated, and residual benefits are described. There's other information there, too. We know you'll make up your own mind about the Derby. This information gives you an edge.

In addition, Dick Downey spends the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and posts his impressions of what he sees and hears on the Subscription Page.

To subscribe, click here. You'll receive a confirmation screen and then an order confirmation email. If your email filter blocks your mail, send a message via Contact Us on the left sidebar or to

A Brief History of Results

The Downey Profile endeavors to focus on a Top Four, thus eliminating 80% of most Kentucky Derby fields.

In 2003, both Funny Cide and Empire Maker made the Top Four. They made up the exacta, paying $97.00. Smarty Jones ranked in our Top Four in 2004, and we picked him to win. In our notes and picks immediately prior to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, we wrote: 

--"Giacomo is the best bridesmaid in the country."
--"Giacomo moves up from thirteenth in the Total Points Profile (to fifth in the Performance Points Category); consistently hits board."

Giacomo won the  2005 Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds, the second-highest odds winner in the history of the race.

In 2006, another horse from The Downey Profile Top Four won the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro ranked third in The Downey Profile. Downey made the mistake of picking another horse to win. Top-ranked Brother Derek dead-heated for fourth with Jazil, who was co-fourth weight in the Downey Profile. The result: Three of the Derby top five finishers came from the Downey Profile Top Four.

In 2007, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy were tied for top spot in the Downey Profile Rankings, and they were picked on top here. Street Sense was the next choice in Downey's final picks. In Our Short Comments Two Days Before the Derby: "Had (Street Sense) won the Blue Grass by a nose instead of losing it by a nose, he would be a Top Four horse in the Downey Profile. As things stand, he's ranked sixth. Considering he's only raced twice at age two--a significant drawback in the Downey Profile--his ranking is very good, and would be phenomenal but for a nose." From our Profile Busters Profile Section: "Hard Spun meets five of the PBP factors and leads all others....   Street Sense meets four of the PBP factors. Street Sense and Hard Spun finished one-two.

In 2008, Big Brown, the 2-1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, was not kind to the Profle, and vice-versa. Frankly, this Derby was kind of strange to us.

In 2009,  Pioneerof the Nile was top-ranked and finished second; Papa Clem was third-ranked and finished fourth. Mine That Bird's ranking in our Total Points Profile was 16th, but he jumped to 10th in the Performance Points Only Profile. That was a significant jump, like Giacomo's in 2005, but we reasoned that he was still 10th, best case. Lesson learned perhaps.

In 2010, Ice Box ranked second in The Downey Profile, and he topped the Performance Points Only Category. We picked him to win, and despite his poor performances since the Kentucky Derby, we still believe he was the best horse on Derby day and failed to win only after being blocked and steadied multiple times in the stretch. The winner, Super Saver, was one of two horses identified in our Profile Busters Profile, and Downey pegged him third before the race.

In 2011, the Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, was in the Top Four, ranked fourth in The Downey Profile, and won the race by 2 3/4 lengths at 20-1 odds. We also do a Profile Busters Profile. Only two horses made that list, and one of them, Nehro, finished second in the Derby. We liked Shackleford. He set the pace and finished fourth, beaten less than a length for second, then went on to win the Preakness.

In 2012, Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another was a Profile Buster Profile horse, as was second finsher Bodemeister. Third finisher Dullahan was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister repeated their one-two finish in the Preakness, and Downey Profile Top 4 horse Creative Cause was third. Union Rags, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse, won the Belmont Stakes. Downey also had Paynter and Atigun, who ran two-three, in his Belmont Top 4. Union Rags and Optimizer were the only Derby horses to run in the Belmont.

All in all, we were pleased with the outcome of the 2013 Derby. Orb was a Profile Buster horse that we reported on our Subscription Page had perhaps the best pre-Derby workout at Churchill Downs and who was doing well there. Revolutionary was a Downey Profile Top 4 who ran third, as was Normandy Invasion, the fourth finisher. Mylute, the fifth finisher, was a Profile Buster. There was little way to pick Golden Soul to run second, but we said this about him shortly before the Kentucky on our Subscription Page in Segment 22 NOTES:  "Golden Soul was described by trainer Stewart as being a horse that would be "the longer they go, the better" back on Jan. 20. I think that Stewart's opinion was on target, and it might be worth a few extra dollars to put this horse underneath in the exotics. However, I do not believe he can win."

In 2014, three of our Downey Profile Top 4 horses finished first, third and fifth in the Kentucky Derby. California Chrome was our pick to win. Danza had a chance to get second but had to settle for third after being bumped hard by stablemate Vinceremos. Samraat was fifth.

In 2015, we are pleased to say that American Pharoah ranked in the Top 4 and that he was Downey's choice, and the choice of Greg Johnson, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He put in A workout at Churchill Downs for the Derby that was exactly what you want to see in a horse that's ready to roll in the Derby, and Downey was there with track clockers to see it. In addition, Downey's top 5 selections in the Kentucky Derby ran one-through-five.

In 2016, Nyquist, a Top 4 horse in the Downey Profile, won the Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator, also in the Downey Profile Top Four, finished second in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness. Gun Runner, third in the Kentucky Derby was also a Top Four horse. Downey picked these horses one-two-three in the Derby, and they ran one-two-three.

In 2017, Downey went outside the Top Downey Profile 4 and selected the top Profile Buster Profile horse, Always Dreaming, to win the Kentucky Derby. The Downey Profile had produced the winner of the Kentucky Derby from its Top 4 in 30 of the last 44 runnings, but sometimes there are identifiable factors that can bust the Profile. After Downey witnessed the tremendous final Derby workout of Always Dreaming, he decided that 2017 might be one of those times.

A Little About Us and Our Products

The Downey Profile is based in Kentucky and is published by The Downey Profile, a sole proprietorship. It's a seasonal web site specializing in the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, then resuming publication for special events like the Kentucky Downs live meet.

While the website has free information updated daily, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Subscription Page gets you The Downey Profile -- updated throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby; detailed Segment NOTES on Kentucky Derby 1 1/8-mile prep races; Dick's Picks and Picks by "The Commish" for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes; compiled pedigree and dosage information; and other features, including our view about an important running style that is key to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Profile Busters Profile.

Our Derby Trail Subscription was offered in 2015 and 2017 and did well, and it's back in 2018. That information was offered free in 2016 because illness in Downey's family shortened our coverage. This service includes a variety of features. (1) Selections on the Derby Trail by Dick Downey and Greg Johnson, starting with the Risen Star Stakes and ending with the Lexington Stakes. (2) Our lists called Looking Good, Worth Watching and Just In Case that provide trainer, owner, breeder, two-generation pedigree, dosage info, foal date, auction history, race-by-race narrative and extensive quotes and NOTES from and about trainers, jockeys, owners and the horses. We usually start out with 90 to 100 horses on these lists. (3) We try to have fun with ongoing notes and observations about who's doing what, where they're going next, gaps in workouts, jockey changes and other tidbits that are interesting and useful.